But hey, a trillion dollars ain't what it used to be, right? A trillion dollars of deficit and a trillion in quantitative easing equals, "a trillion here, a trillion there"...we'll see both in 2014.
I should be out of the prediction business. We are, after all, still running after the can that was kicked ahead of us in 2008, 09, 10, 11, 12 and 13. The much-deserved, inevitable, and oft-predicted reckoning remains out there, just below the horizon...but I can't call its arrival to within twelve months, I've tried, but I can only apply reason and common sense and neither of those commodities is in play. I only know that it must come, and when it finally happens it's gonna suck.
I do believe that 2014 will be a year dominated by the debate over quantitative easing and the disaster(s) that will be caused by either continuing,or ending,the policy. For what it's worth, I don't think they'll taper... much. Oh, they may take a little off the sides and use the thinning shears a bit, but an end to QE is as unlikely, and as socially disastrous, as a buzz-cut in 1975 (it was awful). Paper money is like crack cocaine for bankers. In this case, the supplier/dealer went to Harvard with his addict buddies. He can't cut them off, it would make things awkward at weddings and funerals and the club.
How much "good" QE and low interest rates will do to keep the economy afloat is another question that will be answered right before our eyes in 2014. You can't lower interest rates below zero, so that arrow is shot. The bankers could actually lend the QE money into the economy, but tapped-out consumers and energy prices that rise with every mention of recovery conspire to squash the bankability of most projects before the funds can be disbursed...so, the bankers simply park the money in government paper, as making a little interest (on money that you borrowed for nothing) is better than losing it to some middle-class economic recovery scheme...
O'care will remain the greatest political and economic goat-rope in the history of the world.
2014 will see a rise in mobs of Berkeley-and-Birkenstock inspired lumpenproles who specialize in coveting their neighbors stuff (especially their paychecks). They'll make news, but not much more, since a bunch of billionaires are behind them and, well, billionaires don't REALLY work against their own interests. There are a couple of ways to expand an economy: increase incomes, or expand credit. Neither of those things is going to happen in 2014, so the billionaire-backed-Berkeley-and-Birkenstock inspired lumpenproles will make a show out of blaming their neighbors who make $250 grand a year. The result will be social strife, but no economic expansion, since waving a sign in the street while coveting your neighbor's stuff has never been much of a personal, or national, economic policy.
2014 will be the year that middle-aged, middle class Americans realize that "sales", and a bunch of other occupations, aren't really skills. They're going to head back to school. They're going to learn to make stuff the modern way.
MIley Cyrus and her onstage exploits along with two dozen other high-profile moral disintegrations may result in a moral tipping point that starts the pendulum swinging in the other direction...the question is, "Why does rich and famous have to mean morally disgusting?".."It doesn't", is the answer.
Social media will be less popular (with adults) at the end of 2014 than the beginning...people don't have the time, and the "new" has worn off..
Stocks will go UP before they go (way, way, way) DOWN...This year, or next? Nobody can say for certain. Much depends on how long the BS manipulation of every possible number holds up.
Housing prices and sales will remain depressed in all but the largest/hottest 10 or 20 markets with credit for the middle-class still very tight.
$3 to $4 gas will continue to drain the US economy, built on $1 gas...
2014's Weather? Worse.
The Middle-East will continue to burn for all of 2014. In previous posts, I predicted Iraq's fall. I stand by that prediction. whether this year, or the next, or some other point in the future, Iraq will be divided between Shia and Sunni (meaning Iranian proxies and Sunni/Caliphate Builders Inc).
Afghanistan is screwed...2014, 2015, maybe 2016, the Taliban rides back into Kabul. Or, we ride back into Kabul and start over...you know, I'm thinkin' that it's Luxembourg's turn...
The Palestinians will be just as screwed in 2015 as they are now, the Israelis will be just as nervous in 2015 as they are now and Iran will still be playing the West/ BO Administration for a fool in 2015, just like they are now. If the Iranian government didn't have the US for an "enemy" and Israel and the Palestinians for a rally point they'd have no one to blame for their domestic incompetence and brutality. They can't make peace and stay in power. So they won't make peace. They'll just see what they can get from negotiating, like that bastard that took my little sister to the prom in '88...yeah, I'm still lookin' for YOU, Bryan (with a "Y")...
For the most part, the sun will come up, and the sun will go down. Spring will come and smart people will plant something to eat and something pretty to look at and smell. Smart people will also cut a pile of wood and plant some fruit trees on a little piece of safe ground that they own. We'll harvest and can and in the Fall put a couple of deer in the freezer beside the fish and vegetables. A solar power system will get installed next to the shed that holds the generator and the batteries. We'll celebrate Thanksgiving and cut a Christmas tree in the Fall of 2014, just like we did in the Fall of 2004.In other words, things will slog along in the new normal way until they quit. And then, there will be no normal for a while. And we have no choice but to handle whatever comes...